Lewis Hamilton’s worst F1 season raises two big questions

When Lewis Hamilton won two Grands Prix in the space of three weeks in July, few would have thought his swan song at Mercedes could end so painfully.

Yes, there was a superb comeback from 16th to fourth in Abu Dhabi, but only a month before he had hinted that a torrid Sao Paulo GP could be his last race for the team. Then, in Qatar, he wanted to abandon his car after receiving his second penalty in another grueling race. Her all-red outfit at Yas Marina on Sunday suggested her eyes were already set on 2025.

Hamilton has always been a man prone to emotional ups and downs and this is understandable in the intense environment of Formula 1. It is rarely difficult to gauge his mood, especially in recent months. Even though there was the height of a first victory in 31 months at Silverstone, Hamilton is now having his worst season in F1. There will surely be relief that it’s finally over.

The figures for many measures reveal the scale of the season’s challenges. A seventh place finish in the drivers’ championship is Hamilton’s lowest in 18 seasons in Formula 1. The last time he placed this low in a full championship was in the Formula Renault UK Winter Series in 2001, when he was 16 years old.

Hamilton’s 223 points are his lowest total since his first season at Mercedes in 2013, when he scored 189. However, this came in a season of 19 grands prix and without sprint races increasing the points. Regarding points scored per grand prix, 2024 is worse with 8.6 (including sprint races) per grand prix compared to 9.9 in 2013.

In its defense, the mercurial Mercedes W15 has been the fourth fastest car on average this year, only occasionally vying for victory. Yet look at his record against the man at the controls of the same machine – the truest measure of a driver’s performance – and things don’t get much better.

Before 2024, Hamilton had only been beaten by a teammate three times in 16 seasons. George Russell has now achieved this twice in his three years at Mercedes, taking 245 points compared to 223 this season. This equates to Hamilton scoring just 91 percent of his teammate’s points. Only the years 2011 (84.1%) and 2022 (87.3%) were worse according to this indicator.

His drop in performance was most marked during qualifying. For so long, his raw speed was unmatched, but his comeback this year is hard to believe. Of course, he himself had difficulty believing it.

In the combined sprint and grand prix qualifying, he lost 24-6 to Russell. His average Grand Prix qualifying position of 8.5 is more than three places lower than Russell’s of 5.17. Things were better in the races, with an average finishing position of 5.9 compared to Russell’s 5.1.

Yet only once before had Hamilton recorded a worse qualifying record than a teammate over a season, and never this badly. In fact, not even close to that degree. This is a big factor in the fact that Hamilton has only outpaced Russell seven times in the 20 races they have both completed.

This confused not only observers but also Hamilton himself. He has hinted on occasion, in a roundabout and cryptic way, that he and Russell may not be in equal machinery. His overall tone also became increasingly desperate and depressed, leading him to admit to Qatar that he was “definitely not fast anymore.” As with every other qualification…I’m just slow.

Simply put, Hamilton was soundly beaten by Russell, in a way that no teammate has managed before. That leaves two big questions about the seven-time champion. First: why was this season so bad? Second: will this become a trend?

The first question is more difficult to answer. Indeed, Hamilton cannot – or will not – offer a detailed explanation for his dramatic slowdown. The bottom line is that he doesn’t like the car and that may have been the case for most of the post-2021 ground effect era, as Toto Wolff, director of the Mercedes team, in Qatar.

Mercedes’ performance has been up and down over the past three seasons, rarely finding a window where drivers are happy with the car. Since becoming teammates, it has always been Russell who has been the most adept – or perhaps the least hampered – at handling a difficult machine. For some reason the car is unstable too often. This, in turn, leads to Hamilton lacking confidence in what the car is doing and a drop in performance.

This was particularly visible during qualifying, where the car is the most volatile and the driver attacks the hardest. Hamilton made small but significant mistakes several times during qualifying. Las Vegas was the season in microcosm, where errors on his two Q3 laps prevented him from setting a representative lap time while Russell took pole.

Hamilton should have done better this season

A driver of Hamilton’s quality should be able to achieve more than he has this season. Perhaps also his impending departure from Ferrari led to a completely natural withdrawal of his involvement in the direction and development of the 2024 car as the season progressed, or even a reduction in his own investment in the team success.

Will this continue? 2022 was bad but let’s not forget that in 2023 Hamilton was the best Mercedes driver. Sometimes, however, a champion’s abilities fade significantly while they are still competing. This is particularly acute when the driver succeeds and stays on a competitive team, as it makes a downturn more clear. Daniel Ricciardo’s move to McLaren ended with a lost air, but Sebastian Vettel’s final years at Ferrari are a fitting example.

Vettel won four consecutive titles for Red Bull from 2010 to 2014, but began making various mistakes at Ferrari. Despite leading Mercedes’ Hamilton through 2017 and 2018, Vettel’s championship hopes evaporated, largely by his own hand. In 2019, Vettel’s long-time teammate Kimi Raikkonen was replaced by a 20-year-old with just one season at Sauber under his belt. He beat Vettel in their first year together, then more roundly in 2020 in what was the German’s final season at the Scuderia. This man? Hamilton’s teammate next year, Charles Leclerc.

Could Leclerc hasten the end of Hamilton’s career, just as he did Vettel’s Maranello exit? If Hamilton can’t regain the pace and consistency he seems to have lost last year, it’s possible, although we can expect him to stick around until the new regulations in 2026. Leclerc is an excellent one-lap driver and has just recorded his best season in F1. He has also been Ferrari’s main man for half a decade.

None of this should write Hamilton off. Coming into a new environment at a resurgent Ferrari with a car he might like is exactly what he needs after three difficult seasons. Sunday in Abu Dhabi reminded us that he is still capable of those high moments when the lights go out. It’s hard to imagine a time when his stock in F1 was lower, however. As things stand, you’d back the Monegasque to win at Ferrari next year.

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